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	<title>R&#38;R Consulting &#187; fraud</title>
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		<title>Rope-A-Dope Securitization Economics: Part 2</title>
		<link>http://creditspectrum.com/2008/04/rope-a-dope-securitization-economics-part-2/</link>
		<comments>http://creditspectrum.com/2008/04/rope-a-dope-securitization-economics-part-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 05 Apr 2008 14:49:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ann Rutledge</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ann Rutledge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curmudgeon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SLN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US Basel NPR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uniform Retail Credit Classification and Account Management Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[default]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[extendable note]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fraud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mismanagement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recency]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://creditspectrum.com/2008/04/rope-a-dope-securitization-economics-part-2/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In Rope-A-Dope 101, we said there are five ways to mask the credit quality of a structured bond, that it is done by manipulating an “invisible” boundary where the consequences of being on one side or the other are not symmetrical, and that the boundary is only invisible to the investor. In Rope-A-Dope 201-205, we [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In Rope-A-Dope 101, we said there are five ways to mask the credit quality of a structured bond, that it is done by manipulating an “invisible” boundary where the consequences of being on one side or the other are not symmetrical, and that the boundary is only invisible to the investor. In Rope-A-Dope 201-205, we will go through each of the five in more detail to show how the cheating takes place, beginning with:<span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:100%;" > </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:100%;" >Recognize a bad (credit) event late.</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></p>
<p></span><span><span style="font-style: italic;">Default</span></span><span style="font-style: italic;"> </span>and <span style="font-style: italic;">delinquency</span> are bad credit events. The meaning of <span style="font-style: italic;">d</span><span><span style="font-style: italic;">elinquency</span></span> is strictly financial. It represents the point in time when the borrower’s payments begin to lag the contractually due amounts. <span><span style="font-style: italic;">De</span></span><span style="font-style: italic;">fault</span> on the other hand is a political event. It signifies that the lender has lost faith that the borrower will repay and starts proceedings to try to recover the capital. The right time to declare a default is a judgment call, made in light of the borrower, the loan purpose, the type of collateral and the due amount. Give the borrower too little time and he will not be able to repay you. Give the borrower too much time and he will not want to repay you but will divert funds originally intended for you to other uses. Despite the judgmental aspect of when to set the cutoff, however, <span style="font-style: italic;">good credit policies always have </span><span style="font-style: italic;">an arm’s-length</span><span style="font-style: italic;"> cutoff, which good credit managers consistently&nbsp;enforce.</span></p>
<p>The <span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">simplest game</span> is to securitize receivables whose</span><span> </span><span style="font-style: italic;">credit and investment (C&amp;I) policy</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span>doesn’t <span>define default in </span><span style="font-style: italic;">days-delinquent terms</span>. Information about loan status disappears upon sale or transfer, because the clock is reset to “zero days&nbsp;delinquent.”</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">What happens? </span>If the cutoff is not in the definition of default for purposes of setting eligibility criteria, the receivable will always be &#8220;current&#8221; even after it stops paying. That loophole allows it to be securitized again, and again as if it still had full value, because the buyer can never discover what the seller knows, namely that the receivable is worthless.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">Is it legal? </span></span>The <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">Uniform Retail Credit Classification and Account Management Policy</span> has clear cutoffs for consumer loans. The default definition for wholesale lending under the <span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;"><span class="caps">U.S.</span> Basel <span class="caps">NPR</span></span> (September 2006) is well-intended but has no teeth. It is also out-of-synch with regulatory guidelines elsewhere that have a clear&nbsp;cutoff.</p>
<p><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Another common </span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">game</span><span>, mainly in <span class="caps">ABCP</span> conduits,</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span>makes use of a double-standard: the original cutoff for the transferor, and a more lenient cutoff for the&nbsp;<span class="caps">SPE</span>.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">What happens? </span>Say the cutoff of the original receivable is 90 days and the cutoff for the conduit that buys the receivable is 120 days. An 89-day delinquent receivable may be sold out of portfolio and funded in the conduit for another 119 days. And new notes can be issued against it, even though it is still unpaid at 208 days, because it is still &#8220;current.&#8221; (For a thorough discussion of calendar tricks, see Sam Pilcer&#8217;s <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">Understanding Structured Liquidity Facilities in Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Programs</span>, <span style="font-weight: bold;"><span class="caps">ABCP</span> Commercial Paper Market Review, First Quarter 1997</span>.)<br /><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">Is it legal?</span> </span>Calendar tricks are acceptable in fully-supported conduits, where the conduit administrator provides a credit backstop. By rating agency and market custom, they are not permissible in partially-supported conduits where receivables should be funded at fair value. However, since loan-level information is never disclosed in <span class="caps">ABCP</span> conduits, this trick is utterly beyond the capacity of investors to discover, unless or until it is too late.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span><span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">A third game</span> is to</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="font-style: italic;">&#8220;fix&#8221; the delinquency clock so the cutoff is never reached</span><span style="font-style: italic;">.</span> The most common version of this trick is to keep track of delinquencies using <span style="font-style: italic;">recency</span> rather than <span style="font-style: italic;">contractual</span>&nbsp;accounting.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">What happens? </span>With recency, the clock is reset to zero and the borrower is deemed current, regardless of whether or not the contractual amount has been paid. The consequences are the same as above: only the seller can see that the loan is not worth what the buyer pays for it.<br /><span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">Is it legal?</span></span><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);"> </span>Bank regulators frown upon and discourage it. Under the <span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">Revised Uniform Retail Credit Classification and Account Management Policy</span> in 2000, the <span class="caps">FFIEC</span> highlighted the abuses of the recency method and articulated a preference for the contractual method. The revision imposed a limit on institutions using the contractual method, who would not be allowed automatically to change to recency without seeking and obtaining permission.<span style="font-weight: bold;"></p>
<p></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Finally, </span><span style="font-style: italic; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">Market Value</span><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(51, 51, 255);"> </span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 255);">games</span> are based on the use of traded price as a proxy for fair value when price formation becomes disconnected from valuation. Market value games are the rationale for Market Value CDOs. They also led to the August 2007 <span class="caps">U.S.</span> <span class="caps">ABCP</span> liquidity&nbsp;crisis.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">What happened?</span> </span>Demand for prime mortgages in the late 1990s was strong. It was common for delinquent loans to be bid at par in dealer markets.<span style="font-style: italic;"> </span>That is why rating agencies came to accept<span style="font-style: italic;"> market value swaps (<span class="caps">MVS</span>) in extendible notes</span> (SLNs) issued by single-seller mortgage conduits. MVSs came to be viewed, incorrectly, as a credit protection. Their role in these extendibles continued long after the original rationale was forgotten and the mortgage collateral was no longer prime.<span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"></p>
<p><span style="color: rgb(51, 102, 255);">Is it legal?</span></span> So long as the swap is documented and the counterparties are not proscribed in their own rules from making the trade, it is perfectly legal. But it is not credit&nbsp;protection.</p>
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		<title>Rope-a-Dope Securitization Economics: Part I</title>
		<link>http://creditspectrum.com/2008/03/rope-a-dope-securitization-economics-part-i/</link>
		<comments>http://creditspectrum.com/2008/03/rope-a-dope-securitization-economics-part-i/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Mar 2008 17:47:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ann Rutledge</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Ann Rutledge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Curmudgeon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fitch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moody's Investors Service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rating Agencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Securities Exchange Commission]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Standard and Poor's]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fraud]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://creditspectrum.com/2008/03/rope-a-dope-securitization-economics-part-i/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The high road of securitization is forward-looking. It promotes economic growth and rewards superior asset quality. Securitization is alive and doing well in grass-roots economies. But maybe you have not come to our blog to read about the high road of securitization. Maybe you have come looking for a map to lead you off the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The high road of securitization is forward-looking. It promotes economic growth and rewards superior asset quality. Securitization is alive and doing well in grass-roots economies. But maybe you have not come to our blog to read about the high road of securitization. Maybe you have come looking for a map to lead you off the low road of securitization because it’s a dead end, and you’re out of a&nbsp;job.</p>
<p>Your first step is to take a good long look at the pot-holed reality of the low road you’ve been on. All the signs of fast money and questionable business practices were in public view for five or ten years. (The annual conference in Las Vegas—what did you think that was? <span class="caps">WYSIWYG</span>) But, this blog is not meant as a litany of cheap shots. It&#8217;s meant to be a guide to what needs to be confronted and changed. You see, the low road of securitization is actually much worse than people&nbsp;imagine.</p>
<p>The low road of securitization is a series of pseudo-processes embedded in a special market where anything goes so long as it can be vetted by one or more rating agencies. Call them <span style="font-style: italic;">de facto</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">regulators</span> of a rogue financial system placed effectively beyond the control of the <span class="caps">SEC</span>, the Fed and Congress, and below the radar screen of <span class="caps">FASB</span>. Call these pseudo-processes <span style="font-style: italic;">Rope-A-Dope 101</span>. Call the American public - you, and me too - who are being handed a sentence of lifetime of debt service for the financial system’s five year credit orgy, the&nbsp;dopes.</p>
<p>In <span style="font-style: italic;">Rope-A-Dope 101</span>, there are five preferred (often inter-related) ways to mask the true credit condition of a structured bond. Each entails the manipulation of an &#8220;invisible&#8221; boundary where the consequences of being on one side or the other are asymmetrical. The boundary is not really invisible; it is transparent to the rating agency MDs and certain parties inside the arranging banks who know how to play. But most of the market does not, and in some cases, cannot see it. That&#8217;s the beauty of&nbsp;<span style="font-style: italic;">Rope-A-Dope</span>.</p>
<p>Here are the&nbsp;rules:</p>
<p>(1)    Recognize a bad event late. In credit, the “bad event” is generally taken to mean default, but delinquency numbers can also be&nbsp;jiggered.</p>
<p>(2)    Recognize a good event early. Receipt of cash flows is a “good event,” hence recoveries are good although they result from defaults. To minimize the optical loss, delay the recognition of defaults and accelerate the recognition of recoveries. Push the envelope as far as it will&nbsp;go.</p>
<p>(3)    Hide a particularly toxic loan or security inside a portfolio and publish only aggregated (which is to say average) risk measures that paint an unduly rosy picture of risk-adjusted returns. This is a favorite Rope-A-Dope tactic in <span class="caps">ABCP</span> conduits and CDOs, where collateral is generally&nbsp;heterogeneous.</p>
<p>(4)    Massage the capital structure until the security in question (part of the capital structure) is on the right side of a rating boundary. The classic maneuver is to make the security a very weak <span class="caps">BBB</span>-/Baa3 and not a very strong <span class="caps">BB</span>+/Ba1, because of the pricing or capital regulatory impact of carrying a <span class="caps">NIG</span> (non-investment grade) rather than an <span class="caps">IG</span> (investment grade)&nbsp;risk.</p>
<p>(5)    Stuff the pool with small portions of ineligible or non-existent collateral. If the transaction pays anyway, make the portions bigger the next&nbsp;time.</p>
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